The Truth About High Returns: Risk Never Disappears — It Just Hides
Lesson #3: Big Returns Carry Inherent Risk We had a 12-year track record with an average IRR of 42% through 2023. Strong numbers, but even the best track records don’t make you immune to risk. When conditions changed, the downside showed up fast. Big returns always carry inherent risk, and history is no guide to […]
The Perfect Storm in Multifamily: Fed Hikes, Falling Rents, and 50,000 New Units in Austin
Market cycles are inevitable in real estate, but the convergence of factors since 2022 has been unprecedented: aggressive Fed rate hikes, 40% valuation drops in some markets, and historic supply surges all hitting simultaneously. Austin alone had 50,000 units in the pipeline, driving rents and occupancy down just as borrowing costs spiked. The timing created […]
Lesson #2: Floating-Rate Debt and High LTVs Run Out of Options Fast
In a near zero interest rate environment, floating-rate debt and higher leverage can feel like a good choice. When debt is virtually free and you’re focused on maximizing returns, leverage is the way to do it. But the risk is always there, even when it doesn’t feel like it. When rates rise quickly, debt service […]
Don’t Fight the Fed
Lesson #1: Don’t Fight the Fed One of the most important investing lessons I’ve learned came in the spring of 2022. We had just closed our first deal with a new institutional equity partner, the first of what was supposed to be multiple deals. Shortly after, the Fed began one of the fastest and most […]
In the Arena: Real Estate Investing Lessons Learned Through the Ups and Downs of the Market Cycle
It’s been quite a cycle, and I’ve had a front-row seat to both the upswing and the downswing. Now that things have settled a bit, I wanted to share a series of lessons learned from this period. This season required a lot of hard decisions. Looking back, I’ve had time to reflect on what worked, […]
Alan Stalcup Scholarship Supports UTRGV Senior Layla Sierra on Her Path to Becoming a Texas Educator
EDINBURG, TX — The Alan Stalcup Scholarship continues its mission of investing in students who are committed to making a difference in their communities. The program’s newest recipient, Layla Sierra, is a senior at The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) pursuing a Bachelor’s degree in Education with ESL certification (EC–6) and is on track to graduate […]
Are the Headlines True? – Additional Details
Thank you all for the support following the recent “Are the Headlines True?” Update. We received a lot of questions and input, and wanted to circle back with a clear update on where things stand regarding the two sour grape lawsuits. Many of you have asked for additional details, so I wanted to provide a […]
Alan Stalcup on Market Cycles, Investor Discipline, and Navigating the Sunbelt Real Estate Shift
It was great connecting with Hiten on Friday for an honest interview. He asked some of the hardest-hitting questions, and it was fun to give real-time feedback on what many investors, colleagues, and lurking CRE professionals want to know. This profession doesn’t come without risk. Hiten did a great job digging into what floating-rate multifamily […]
Addressing Recent Headlines, Allegations, and Resolved Matters
January 19, 2026 In my last update, I noted that several negative headlines and lawsuits have circulated regarding GVA and me personally. This update is intended to address those matters directly and provide clarity around what is fact, what is allegation, and what has already been resolved. Are the headlines true? Over the past year, […]
How Leadership Decisions Helped Reduce Losses and Protect Investor Value
After outlining what happened and why the market turned so quickly, this update focuses on the leadership decisions and operational actions taken to reduce losses and protect investor value during one of the most challenging real estate cycles in decades. Context Matters: Timing and Market Reality Approximately 80% of the portfolio was acquired in 2021 […]